US report outlines response if Russia annexes Belarus

The United States has prepared an action plan in case Belarus is annexed by Russia within the next two years. The plan was developed by diplomat and Russia expert Thomas Graham. He prepared the document for the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), reports the Belsat.

The author emphasizes that his report is not a forecast and does not represent the official position of the United States — it is solely an analytical set of recommendations for Washington.

Graham believes that the course of the war in Ukraine, uncertainty over Lukashenko's successor, and a possible warming of political relations between Minsk and Washington could push Moscow toward annexing Belarus. This could happen in two ways — through gradual integration within the framework of the so-called Union State, or through a forcible absorption of Belarus:

"Creeping annexation would proceed through the gradual erosion of Belarusian sovereignty: the introduction of the Russian ruble, full integration of the security services, Russian control over the media and the education system, and ultimately the formal incorporation of Belarus — in whole or in part — into the Russian Federation."

The expert recommends that US leadership restore contacts with Minsk cautiously, so as not to provoke the Kremlin by weakening Russia's positions. At the same time, he says, preparations must be made for a possible annexation.

Should signs of a forcible scenario emerge, Graham advises strengthening NATO's eastern flank, publicly disclosing intelligence data, and preparing an international response.

He notes that Belarus is not capable of strengthening Russia either economically or demographically. "But geography matters. A Belarusian buffer state helps reduce the risk of direct military confrontation not only between Russia and its neighbors, but also between Russia and the United States. Its disappearance would have far-reaching consequences for the military and strategic situation in Europe, Russian-American relations, and the entire architecture of regional security," the report states.