Can Belarusian potash replace Canadian supplies on the US market?

The ship carrying the first batch of Belarusian potash is expected to reach the United States in October 2026. Before the 2021 sanctions, Belarus sold about one-fifth of all the potash in the world. Even after the sanctions were imposed, the country continued to produce and sell around 15% of the global volume.

Can Belarusian potash become an alternative to Canadian potash on the US market? Economic analyst Andrei Makhousky believes that it would be difficult for Belarus to fully replace Canadian supplies.

“If all Belarusian potash were sent to the US, these volumes would be enough to cover the entire American market. But this is a very theoretical situation.”

According to him, statements that Belarusian potash will be significantly cheaper than Canadian potash raise questions because of logistics.

“Canadian potash can be transported by rail, while Belarusian potash first has to be delivered across the ocean and then transported by rail.”

Production in Belarus is indeed cheaper, but this does not mean that the final price for an American buyer will be lower.

“I cannot imagine how Belarusian potash could ultimately be cheaper than Canadian potash for the US, taking logistics costs into account.”

Makhousky identifies logistics, rather than a lack of markets, as the main problem for Belarus.

“It’s not that everything is fine; there is still a major problem with logistics. Transporting it is expensive and takes a long time.”

At the same time, transit through Lithuania is particularly important for Belarus.

“The main thing Lukashenko is interested in is not the American market, but transit through Lithuania or Poland. Lithuania would be preferable, of course, because it is the shortest route.”

As for a possible increase in supplies to the US, the expert says that volumes of hundreds of thousands of tonnes could be found.

“There is no problem finding an economically viable volume of 500,000 tonnes somewhere. But if we are talking about 10 million tonnes, then yes, there is a problem.”